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For each material risk valued as transferred to the Northway consortium in the Public Sector Comparator and public-private partnership evaluation for the Warkworth to Te Hana project, what probability of occurrence and what cost impact, or distribution of cost impacts, were assumed in calculating that value, if any, and what methodology (for example Monte Carlo simulation, expected-value estimation, or structured expert elicitation) was used to derive those assumptions?

Answered Question 35882 (2026)
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Asked by

Tangi Utikere

Member for Palmerston North · Labour Party

Question

  • For each material risk valued as transferred to the Northway consortium in the Public Sector Comparator and public-private partnership evaluation for the Warkworth to Te Hana project, what probability of occurrence and what cost impact, or distribution of cost impacts, were assumed in calculating that value, if any, and what methodology (for example Monte Carlo simulation, expected-value estimation, or structured expert elicitation) was used to derive those assumptions?

Answered by

Hon Chris Bishop

Member for Hutt South · National Party · Minister of Transport

Answer

I refer the Member to my responses to Written Parliamentary Questions 35876 (2026) and 35881 (2026). Risk calculation was completed in accordance with the NZTA’s Cost Estimating Manual (SM014).