Thank you, Dr Bloomfield. Looking at our overall cases today, I know we all feel encouraged that our number is lower than what we’ve seen in the last few days, and I know that we’re all willing for that trend to remain. But while it would be too premature to say we have a trend yet, what we can say is level 4 is making a difference. We are seeing a decrease in cases outside of households, a decreasing number of locations of interest, and the reproduction rate reducing. Now, all of that helps, but the job is not yet done and we do need to keep going.
On Friday, Cabinet agreed to move all regions south of the Auckland boundary to alert level 3 at 11.59 p.m. tomorrow, Tuesday, 31 August. That was on the condition that all the evidence that might emerge in the following days continued to be positive. There is nothing to suggest we need to change that plan, so Cabinet today has confirmed that alert level change will take place. Like last time, business owners and operators are now able to access their premises in order to prepare for contactless opening, including to meet the public health requirements. Just to confirm why we’re comfortable with that alert level shift from Tuesday midnight, wider waste-water testing in Christchurch has not shown up any further positive results, meaning the positive results last week, we believe, can be most likely attributed to cases in managed isolation facilities in the city, and additional testing across the country has only thrown up one additional positive case in Wellington, a household contact of an existing case who was already in isolation and not in the community. Level 3 for the country south of Auckland will remain in place for a week, and we’ll review these settings at Cabinet on 6 September. Our hope will, of course, be that we can keep lowering restrictions when it is safe to do so. So just to repeat: for the rest of the country south of the Auckland border, it will be level 3 for a week, with a review at Cabinet next week.
This afternoon Cabinet also assessed how long Northland will need to remain in level 4. Our decision here has been a cautious one, and that’s because, unfortunately, the cases and worksites in and around Warkworth emerged late in the lockdown. Now, that was not the case for Wellington, for instance, where we’ve had well over a week to monitor contacts and cases and ensure we didn’t have spread. We just haven’t had that level of time for the cases we’re concerned about in Warkworth, and with possible contacts beyond.
Once we have that same level of reassurance for Northland, we feel confident to move alert levels. Now, additional waste-water testing at over 20 sites in Northland are due on Thursday. In addition, further testing from contacts across Northland—and we had a number of contacts across Auckland who have been at locations of interest, and some that relate to some more recent worksites. Some of those further tests will be available in that time frame as well. If these are all clear, the director-general and Cabinet has agreed to lower Northland to alert level 3 at 11.59 p.m. this Thursday. So again, just an indication of our intention here if all of those tests come back clear.
I know many in the north will be interested in what this means for transport corridors at that point. A reminder that at level 3 there is still no inter-regional travel. The only movements into a, for instance, level 4 environment such as Auckland would be for essential work that is already occurring now and, for that to occur, you will need a travel exemption. If it’s for a wider issue, you will need an exemption in order to pass through that border. So very little movement is expected in a level 3 environment.
That then brings me to Auckland. We indicated on Friday what we believed was the most likely scenario for Auckland. Based on the size of the current outbreak, based on the number of daily cases we’re seeing, and based on the need to see a sustained reduction in cases before moving alert levels, Auckland will remain at alert level 4 for another two weeks. Cabinet will meet again on Monday, 13 September to look at our next steps for Auckland.
Now, to move Auckland down a level, which is our absolute goal, we need to be confident we don’t have Delta circulating undetected in the community, and we need to be confident that any cases we may have are contained and isolated. As we saw from this outbreak, it only took a week for one case to spread across the city, and that’s why we’re working so hard to get this right. And I know everyone in Auckland knows we are just not there yet. We are making progress, though, and that is one message I want to leave today. The sacrifice everyone is making is incredibly important, and it is making a difference.
Yesterday I received this graph [Holds up graph]. The red line shows what would have happened if we hadn’t moved hard and fast into level 4. Now, it’s a little difficult for you to see, perhaps, the numbers on the side, but it tells us that daily case numbers are literally off the charts, and that without level 4 some modellers estimate that the number of new cases today could have been around 550. The lines underneath tell us the different paths we could still follow. At the moment, we’re tracking roughly in about the middle of those options, and where we finally will land and when we’ll land there is not yet clear. But that doesn’t mean we are powerless. The more we do to limit our contact, the faster we exit these restrictions, and, more importantly still, the more lives we save.
You will have heard today Dr Bloomfield mention the number of people in hospital. It is a number that each day is reported to me—reminds me of how serious this illness is. In the same way I’m reminded when I read the figures out of the United States, where the daily average hospitalisations for COVID-19 are more than 100,000 people, similar to where they were in their last winter peak. We may not see it in our headlines as often but, the world over, countries and their people continue to battle this vicious virus. And now we have hundreds of people battling this virus in our country, as we speak. Our job is to limit how many people have to face that as much as we can.
My final message is really for all those outside of Auckland. Please remember that level 3 does not mean freedom: it means caution, it means staying in your bubble, it means distance, it means contactless transactions, and I will spend a bit more time going over that tomorrow. But while you’re here, and while you’re preparing to move into level 3, Auckland is doing a huge service for all of us, and not just now but throughout this pandemic. It’s Auckland that has maintained our gateway to the world, that has done a lot of the heavy lifting in welcoming Kiwis home safely, that has worked hard to keep the rest of New Zealand safe when there has been an outbreak. Auckland has done it tough, and they’ve done it tough for all of us. I know we’re all grateful and that we are, as a team of 5 million, willing for their hard work to pay off.
Before I conclude today, a quick word on vaccines, and then I will conclude. Another big day yesterday, especially for a Sunday. That has, of course, raised questions on how our supply is looking. We currently have roughly 840,000 doses of the Pfizer vaccine in the country, and will continue receiving weekly deliveries from Pfizer. You’ll recall that in recent times we’ve been receiving more than 300,000 in each of these deliveries. Our planning has been for the programme to administer 350,000 doses per week. We have the supply and infrastructure to do this sustainably, over a long period of time. There has been a surge in demand. Our vaccination programme has risen to the challenge, and we’re doing much bigger numbers. Last week we administered well over 500,000 doses. We are working on a strategy to meet that demand, with more vaccine in the country. If we are unable to do this, then the worst-case scenario is that we pull back to our planned volumes, which, as I said, would still mean 350,000 doses being delivered a week. Contrary to the reporting, we are not running out of vaccine, but we are seeking to meet the high demands that we have right now, because, of course, we want as many people vaccinated as possible. I’ll happily give you an update on our work to meet that demand in the next couple of days. Happy to take questions.