Thank you, Prime Minister. Today I can confirm that the Government’s mini-Budget will be released on 20 December. This will occur alongside the release of Treasury’s Half Year Economic and Fiscal Update. That mini-Budget document will reflect a number of time-critical decisions made by the incoming Government, including some already confirmed in our 100-day plan. It will also outline a series of actions this Government is taking to restore a culture of fiscal discipline, both to guide the Budget 2024 process and to deliver ongoing fiscal sustainability in the years to come.
All three parties in Government are resolute in their commitment to getting better value for taxpayers’ money, to bringing the Government’s books back in order, and to ensuring New Zealanders can keep more of what they earn. We must put New Zealand on a firmer financial footing, and this will require a much more disciplined approach to Government spending decisions than has been the case in recent years.
At our mini-Budget, I will outline a number of specific steps our Government will be taking to take a more disciplined approach to spending decisions. As I have expressed, I am concerned by the scale of the financial challenges left to us by the outgoing Government. I am still receiving advice on both the number of those challenges, their size, and the options available to the incoming Government.
The challenges fall into two broad categories. The first are risks that were referred to in the pre-election update, but the true scale, and urgency of which, was not made clear for a range of reasons, including commercial sensitivity. Some of these risks are now upon us, and they are much larger than had been suggested.
Second, I have been surprised by the sheer number of Government policy programmes for which funding is due to expire as the Government chose to fund those programmes on a short-term basis only. In some cases, this practice is extremely disingenuous. This is because it makes the books look better in future years, even though it is highly unlikely Ministers genuinely intended to stop funding those programmes. It is remarkable to me, for example, that the outgoing Government left a massive fiscal cliff for Pharmac funding. Did they really intend to withdraw funding for listed medicines? And if not, why didn’t they account for that in their pre-election update?
I have asked Treasury to advise me of how many times this approach has been used and therefore how much funding we will need to find to continue essential programmes left short-changed by the outgoing Government. The preliminary advice is that this sum is likely to approach many billions of dollars over the forecast period.
I will have more to say about how we will approach these risks and what decisions we will make about them. I will also have more to say about what amendments may be required to the Public Finance Act. This is in order to ensure that future Governments are more upfront about these choices.
I am also announcing today that legislation will be introduced to the House next week restoring the Reserve Bank’s single focus on inflation. New Zealand was the first country in the world to implement an inflation target. It was extremely successful. After years of high and volatile inflation, we managed to turn a corner and bring inflation back down to earth. Today, we face a similar task. Inflation has been out of target for two and a half years, and that is why the Government will be restoring the Reserve Bank’s single focus on inflation. History tells us that the best way to deliver strong, consistent growth in employment is by first delivering low and stable inflation. I know the Reserve Bank shares our absolute commitment in bringing inflation back down. Even so, the current dual mandate creates the risk of a future policy mistake.
Further, the Treasury have highlighted that by our Government providing this clear signal of the importance we place on achieving and maintaining price stability, the single mandate could positively influence expectations for future rates of inflation. Reducing inflation expectations is an effective way to dampen inflationary pressure. It’s important to note that our inflation targeting regime will continue to have the flexibility needed to avoid instability in economic output and to ensure the bank can have regard to the real economy.
The decision in 2018 to introduce the dual mandate went against 30 years of success.
Today, our Government is making clear that on our watch, inflation is enemy number one. Stable inflation is the prerequisite on which maximum sustainable employment rests.
Obviously, this is just one change we are making in our fight to beat inflation. You’ll see more from this Government in winning that fight. Limiting growth in Government spending, reducing costs on business, and unwinding regulation will all play their part and will form the subject of future announcements. Thank you.