OK. Sorry, Mr Speaker. Sometimes we flush hidden talents out of the House when we make statements like that, which need to be corrected. I know we have people who contributed to parts of a house, anyway.
I, first of all, want to start off with the Greens’ solution, which seems to be to go down the public housing track. Julie Anne Genter stood up and said that Kāinga Ora (KO) public housing was the answer to everything, and she said it’s $70 million. Well, how many houses? We didn’t get a reply from her at any stage on that. I can bet your bottom dollar that the problem with those is they were inordinately expensive. When I was the Mayor of Wellington, I saw KO projects, and most of them were sitting at around $900,000 to a million dollars—for the building; probably excluding the land. That is for a one- or two-bedroom house—maybe three if you’re lucky. They were very, very expensive. Clearly, they were getting the model wrong.
This bill, Madam Speaker—you won’t correct me, will you, on whether you built a house or not? This bill is just a small part of the answer to a very big, complicated problem. What it does is it opens a new pathway for foreign investors to be able to build or buy new housing or long-term housing for rental purposes, where you have 20 or more dwellings all in one place, all contiguous. It’s not a big part of the market, but it’s an important part. It doesn’t say they have to build them, but what it does tend to do is make it more likely that a developer in New Zealand might build something, knowing they’ve got more likelihood of being able to sell it to an international investor or, indeed, to a New Zealand investor. It streamlines the investment process.
I want to talk a little bit about the reasons we have a housing shortage, and there are two parts to it. One is supply; one is demand. Obviously, supply has gone up and down a little bit in terms of the amount that’s been built over time. In fact, it was obvious what was going to happen in the last little while, during the COVID situation. Interest rates went through the roof, the cost of building went through the roof, and house prices which peaked then suddenly plummeted. In that situation, are you, as a developer, going to build a house? The answer is probably not, because you can’t make money on it. The reality is that unless you’re going to step in, as the Green Party suggested, and just have the public sector throw enormous amounts of money at housing regardless of what the cost of it is—and that seemed to be the model that KO was operating under—the market is going to decide when it’s going to build and when it’s not going to build. Obviously, they backed off in that situation.
The other part that I wanted to mention is the demand side. The reality is that over many, many years, the last decade or so, COVID aside, we’ve had very, very significant population growth, and that now is no longer driven by New Zealand births over deaths. It is driven very much by migration. One of the things that has always irritated me, I might say, is that we’ve had successive Governments, both Labour and National, saying to councils, “We want you to provide for 30 years of population growth in terms of housing.” Given that most of that now is migration driven, who’s in charge of that? Well, it’s not the councils; it’s the Government. The Government needs to have some sort of clarity around what sort of level of population growth there is going to be.
It was interesting—and I’ve said this before in this House—that the Infrastructure Commission, who, thank heavens, as a responsible organisation, are now saying that we need a population demographic strategy for the country—because if you don’t have that, how many houses do you need? What sort of infrastructure do you need? How many schools? How many hospitals? All of those things. The absence of that becomes a real problem. What they said about stats, because we rely on stats for these sorts of things about the projections—they said stats are “flying blind”, because they don’t know, because they’ve got to put the estimates on the basis of, essentially, past practice, but they don’t know what future practice is going to be, and neither does the Government. It doesn’t matter whether it’s a Government on that side or the Government on this side. We need to do a lot better in that place.
To go back to supply, this is about providing another avenue for the supply of houses. New Zealand First has always been very wary of foreign investment in New Zealand. What we want to do is to make sure that where there is foreign investment in New Zealand, it is to the benefit of New Zealand. That’s what we’re about, New Zealand First. It’s about the benefit to New Zealand. It’s not about the benefit to foreign investors. We’ve always been a little bit wary about that, but what we want to do is make sure there is a good benefit. If you’re going to buy something, what’s that benefit going to be?
We heard mention—I think it was Kieran McAnulty—that there’s a suggestion that maybe $5 million might be the sort of price at which somebody might be able to buy a house in New Zealand. Well, I’m not aware of that as being a definite proposition, but I would say—and I think our view will be—that if you’re going to buy a house, it’s got to be something that doesn’t compete with the New Zealand market, and $5 million probably does that. But $2 million, which was the suggestion, of course, from the National Party, was one that New Zealand First said no to, because you are then starting to compete with New Zealand homeowners.
It was interesting, actually—I had a quick look last week at the number of houses which are $2 million - plus which were listed on TradeMe. I did cherry-pick here. The property market in Wellington has been, obviously, pretty terrible recently, as 3 to 3.5 percent of the 3,249 listings were $2 million or above. In Auckland, out of 15,196 listings, approximately 12 percent were $2 million or above, or could be quite close to $2 million, and there’d be whole lot there. In Queenstown Lakes, it was 45 percent of the 469 listings. My point is that, in some parts of the country, $2 million becomes a real competition with New Zealand buyers, and the other part of that, of course, is that what it would tend to encourage is, if you were thinking about listing it just under $2 million, you might just go, “I’ll push it up a little bit so that I might get a foreigner buying it as well.” That is a real issue.
If I might return to the $5 million—and I think we would be very strong on this—you don’t just want to sell a house; you want to sell to somebody who’s got a lot of money. You want to sell something to someone who’s also going to invest significantly in this country, in productive development, in building new businesses, expanding businesses, and employing Kiwis, because that’s a really important thing.
Let’s just focus, again, on this build-to-rent. Is it going to make a difference? It will make a difference at the margins. We’ve seen that there is a growing market in other jurisdictions—the US, Europe, etc. Will that be as big a benefit here? At the moment, I think the Property Council said that our build-to-rent market is very small. It’s about 0.1 percent of the overall market. They think that if the policy settings are favourable, within a decade it could be 25,000 dwellings. It sounds quite a lot, but it’s still one only 1 percent of the market, so it’s still relatively small. I suspect the reason for that is that those bigger markets—Australia, UK, Europe, and the United States—have got big domestic investment in this. We don’t, and so it’s likely still to remain a relatively modest contribution.
I want to finish off, finally, with some comments on the minority reports. I think Labour said they’d support this proposition. Good; they’re quite clearly trying to differentiate themselves somehow, so we’ve got the idea of having some different number. Kieran McAnulty said a proportional number, but I don’t know how you do a proportional number when Auckland is a lot bigger than Wellington and bigger than Christchurch, and New Plymouth and Masterton are very different sizes. It would be complicated. You might choose another arbitrary level, which is, I guess, what he was suggesting. OK. I think what I’d say is let’s just try what we’ve got at the moment, and let’s see how it goes, and if it goes well, maybe have a look at that going forward. That seems to be where we’re at, at the moment.
It was the Greens, to me, who were really confused, because what they’re saying, effectively, is, “We’ve got enough money in this country to build all the houses that we need.” I don’t know where that money’s coming from, because, at the same time, they want a capital gains tax and they want to punish rental property owners, so they’re going to disincentivise people from building houses. I do not know which magic money tree, other than the State, they seem to want to raid to be able to build the houses this country needs. This bill is simply a small contribution, amongst a range of complex contributions, to fixing a big problem for this country in terms of housing, and I commend this bill to the House.