Christopher Luxon
Minister, Ministerial Services
Minister, National Security and Intelligence
Prime Minister
Permanent linkAll right. Well, good afternoon, everyone. I just need to let you know today that we do have a hard finish of 4.30 pm, so we’ll get straight into it.
Today we do mark another significant step in our Government’s mission to grow international trade and to strengthen New Zealand exports. It was less than three years ago that I committed to getting an FTA done with India, signed in our first term of Government. Two months ago, as you know, we signed that FTA in New Delhi, and today that legislation is being introduced to the Parliament with the first reading to be set for Thursday.
It’s an enormous opportunity for a five-million-person country like New Zealand to actually be able to access the most populous country on Earth with 1.5 billion customers and one of the biggest economies in the world at what will be NZ$12 trillion. This trade deal eliminates, as you know, or significantly reduces tariffs on 95 percent of Kiwi exports to India, including sheep meat, wool, wood, seafood, apples, kiwifruit and wine. That’s giving our exporters access to the world’s most popular country and supercharging earnings back here to New Zealand.
I think a very illustrative example of why we’ve done this is that, you know, New Zealand used to have 90 percent market share of lamb and sheep meat exports into India. Australia secured zero tariffs through its Economic Cooperation and Trade Agreement, and now is an opportunity for us to actually bring—and we fell to 10 percent market share. It’s an opportunity for us to reclaim that market share and obviously bring that extra export income home.
Our FTA does also include ‘most favoured nation’ clauses and, for example, that will actually benefit our wine and some services exports as the India‒EU FTA has slightly better terms on those sectors so we will receive those too, provided our FTA enters to force before the Europeans’. Further, one in four Kiwi jobs depend on trade and the Indian FTA is even more important in times of global volatility and uncertainty to diversify our markets and also our relationships. The Indian FTE frankly means more of those jobs and more money in people’s pockets.
Securing the deal, as you know, has been a key part of National’s ambition to double the value of our exports by 2034. The most recent data shows that we are outpacing that big stretch goal. The good news is that last year we had record growth in exports of $12 billion, up from $102 billion to $114 billion, and that means that exports have grown $20 billion since we came to Government. The good news is the growth is broad-based. Our goods exports are up 18 percent over that period, services are up 27 percent, tourism 119 percent, and international education over 60 percent. And while goods and services exports to China were up 13 percent, and the US was up 15 percent in spite of the tariffs, we’re also increasingly diversifying our markets with exports to Australia up 20 percent, Europe 57 percent, UK 42 percent, the GCC 34, and even India without an FTA is already up 72 percent.
This means for the first time in five years, New Zealand has a trade surplus. We are exporting more to the world than we are importing into New Zealand. In April, New Zealand achieved a monthly trade surplus of almost $2 billion and that’s the highest in well over a decade, and in the middle of the fuel crisis. I think it’s a clear proof point that our economic recovery is going well despite everything else going on the world.
As you know, the GDP result of 0.8 percent for the March quarter is another proof point of the growing strength of our economy. The result represents the highest quarterly growth since September 2023. This quarterly growth rate is almost three times faster than Australia, twice as fast as the US, and twice the recent Treasury budget forecasts. Growth in the previous quarter was also upgraded to 0.5 percent, meaning the economy has grown 2.1 percent in nine months. Again, encouragingly, there was growth in many sectors including manufacturing, business services, retail and accommodation, wholesale trade and exports, all job-rich sectors. Business investment was up almost 4 percent and suggests our investment boost is going well.
However, we’re not naive, as we’ve said before, about what’s ahead. Global conditions remain volatile and uncertain and we’ve certainly been upfront that the next quarter won’t look as good—but you don’t build an economy on one quarter, you build it on the fundamentals, and our fundamentals are going in the right direction. And that’s why it was so good to see Treasury forecasts off the back of the Budget suggesting a 2.7 percent average growth rate and 220,000 new jobs being created over the next four years, and wages growing faster than prices.
Our focus is on getting those economic fundamentals right for the long term and that’s why our Government has made changes to strengthen KiwiSaver. As you know, we lifted the contribution rates from 3 percent to 3.5 percent on the 1st of April this year. They’ll lift by another half a percent to 4 percent on the 1st of April 2028.
Speaking as the National Party leader, the policy announced yesterday builds on that further to strengthen KiwiSaver and grow New Zealand’s financial nest eggs. Under our policy, everyone in work will be required to contribute to KiwiSaver or an equivalent retirement savings scheme from 1 July 2028. The contribution will be set at the default rate, meaning that by 2032, employers and employees must each contribute 6 percent, for a combined rate of about 12 percent to match Australia.
We’ll also be enrolling every child and every baby into KiwiSaver at birth and contributing a $1,500 Baby Boost payment to kickstart their savings. And just to give you a sense of that, at a 7 percent compound growth rate, $1,500 kickstart turns into $120,000 on retirement, and that’s before or excluding any contributions an individual may make.
As you know, we’re also supporting mums and dads to continue building their KiwiSaver while on paid parental leave by fixing what we see as unfairness in the system, and so National will provide a Government contribution to a parent’s KiwiSaver while they’re on paid parental leave, even if the parent isn’t contributing themselves. And we’ll also ensure that savers at the other end of their working lives don’t lose out either, and means that more Kiwis are working beyond 65 and what they should be able to keep building their savings, so we will require employers to maintain matching KiwiSaver contributions for employees over 65.
I’ll now hand over for Nicola to say a little bit more about the reaction to the increase in KiwiSaver rates that took place on 1 April this year.