Christopher Luxon
Minister, Ministerial Services
Minister, National Security and Intelligence
Prime Minister
Permanent linkAll right, well, kia ora, good afternoon, everyone. Can I just start quickly by saying we welcome this morning's announcement of a deal between the US and Iran, and we also want to thank the Pakistani and Qatari leadership who have mediated the deal. Obviously, it remains an incredibly fragile situation, but this news gives us the best hope of peace since the conflict began three and a half months ago, and we now hope that the parties will seize the opportunity to resolve the tensions in the region.
The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has had a significant impact here in New Zealand and we all look forward to seeing safe and reliable trade resume through the strait. The impacts of the situation in the Middle East will continue to be felt for some time after the conflict ends. Our Government will continue to monitor and respond as necessary but no doubt this is welcome news and a step in the right direction.
Our economy has held up relatively well despite the situation in the Middle East and the positive outlook I think was on full display at Mystery Creek last week. For those of you who didn't get to catch Fieldays, you missed something. It was actually my fourth year, I think, in a row up there, and this year was, without doubt, the best yet. It was a privilege, really a real privilege to meet our farmers and growers who are powering New Zealand's economy. The atmosphere was extremely positive and people were full of optimism and excitement, and it's easy to see why.
Our farmers are, quite simply, the very best in the world, and with us they've got a Government that backs them to do the very best. It's not a coincidence that when the primary sector has a Government that backs them, we see food and fibre exports reaching record highs, even with new tariffs and even with the volatile situation in the Middle East. Food and fibre export revenue is forecast to reach $64.3 billion this year to the end of June. That's up 6 percent over last year, with record highs across multiple sectors. Quite simply, when our farmers do well and our growers do well, New Zealand does well, and the primary sector has had a very big part to play in growing our economy and giving it the strength amidst global volatility.
Recent events offshore have had a direct impact on New Zealand but as I said earlier, our economy has held up well, and the outlook is positive. Exports are strong. They're up 9 percent. They've grown a record $10 billion this year, and are up $20 billion since we came to Government, and we're well on track to meet our mission of doubling our exports. And for the first time in five years, New Zealand now has a trade surplus, and in April, we had a record monthly trade surplus of $2 billion in the middle of a fuel crisis. We're now getting back to a surplus a year earlier than we forecast in December and interest rates remain low, and while the full effects of the Middle East conflict on our economy are not yet known, we do anticipate that there will be some impact on inflation, interest rates, and growth.
As you know, our focus has been on maintaining fiscal discipline and making very careful choices to minimise the impact on inflation and growth. Overall, the recent budget forecasts show economic growth averaging 2.7 percent a year for the next four years. The growing economy is set to create 220,000 more jobs over that period, with wages growing faster than prices, which, of course, is the key to making life more affordable for Kiwis. The positive outlook reinforces that our economic approach is the right one. When the world is volatile and uncertain, now more than ever is the time for financial discipline. It's a time for careful choices by a responsible Government that considers not just today, not just election day, but the weeks, months, and years ahead when New Zealanders must live with the consequences. That's how we build our economic resilience to future shocks and set New Zealand up for a much more secure future. It's not the time for ill-disciplined spending sprees that must be paid for by either increasing taxes or by increasing borrowing. Our Government has a long-term plan to help
Kiwis get ahead, and we're sticking to it. And with that, I'll pass on to Nicola for some further remarks on the economy.