Post-Cabinet Press Conference: Monday, 30 March 2026

Well, kia ora, good afternoon, everyone. Can I just extend a very warm welcome to all the Massey students that are here today? I hope you’re really enjoying your time here and I’m sure you’re going to learn a lot from this post-Cabinet press conference, which takes place every Monday.

Look, good afternoon, everybody. The conflict in the Middle East has now entered its fifth week. The New Zealand Government is gravely concerned about the trajectory of this conflict. Every day, New Zealanders are waking up to news about developments in the Middle East, but what we are yet to see is a move to a negotiated settlement and solution. Instead, we’re seeing more ballistic missiles being fired, a million people now displaced in Lebanon, and the Houthis entering the conflict. The longer it goes on, the more severe the impacts, whether that’s the human toll in the Middle East and also the economic pain and suffering being caused all around the world.

The Strait of Hormuz has been heavily restricted to shipping for 26 days now. That is having a major impact on the transportation of not just fuel, but also other critical goods that countries all over the world rely upon. New Zealand is not a party to this conflict or a regional player and we have to be realistic about our ability to influence events in the Middle East, but the world leaders I have been speaking to over the last week are united with New Zealand that de-escalation and the reopening of supply chains is urgently needed. We all want to see a return to the negotiating table. That’s going to require all parties to exercise restraint and to rebuild trust, and it requires both sides to seize opportunities to move towards a negotiated solution.

As I’ve said many times, we can’t control global events but we can control how we respond to them. As a good Government, our focus must be on staying ahead of the potential risks to New Zealand then minimising those impacts to inflation and growth, on our economy and also our people.

Our first priority, of course, is maintaining fuel supply. That’s mission-critical to protecting our economy. Without supply, there are serious impacts to jobs and incomes. As you will have seen from the update published by MBIE earlier today, supplies of petrol, diesel, and jet fuel all remain at sufficient levels. I can reassure New Zealand that we are in a good position with healthy stocks of fuel in country. The levels have increased since the last update and we’re now at 59.3 days cover for petrol, 54.5 days for diesel, 50.4 days for jet fuel. The fluctuation in fuel stock levels from week to week reflects the fact that fuel supply is inherently dynamic: stock levels go up and down as fuel is consumed and new shipments obviously arrive.

There have been reports of some shortages of fuel in some regions of New Zealand, particularly diesel in rural areas. This has happened because of some minor hoarding of fuel, but also because of changes to the allocation policies between the fuel importers and the fuel distributors. The Government has made it clear to fuel companies that these issues must be resolved, particularly as we currently have sufficient levels of both diesel and petrol nationally. The fuel companies have since made changes to fuel allocations to support demand over the coming weeks, recognising the upcoming Easter and school holidays. Fuel companies have also assured us that they are in touch with distributors to provide greater flexibility and are improving communication with customers. Since these measures, no further issues have been reported, but of course we want to hear from anyone who is experiencing any issue accessing fuel.

Based on the fact that the market is continuing to operate effectively and fuel is available nationwide, New Zealand remains in phase one of our fuel response plan, but we are continuing to prepare for a move to phase two if and when we need to. Nicola will talk a bit more about that assessment process shortly.

As you would expect, our Ministers are meeting daily, often multiple times a day, to stay across what is happening with global fuel supply and to ensure that fuel companies are meeting their legally mandated minimum stockholding obligations. As you know, New Zealand fuel importers get the majority of our refined oil from South Korea, Singapore, and Malaysia, and that’s why I’ve also been speaking to their leaders over the last week.

It’s important that New Zealand secures fuel through our normal channels. However, at Cabinet today, we also discussed the option of Government pursuing further commercial opportunities to enhance and add to additional storage and supply of critical fuels like diesel. Obviously, any option we pursue has to be affordable, practical and timely, but officials are pursuing options with urgency, and Nicola and Shane will be able to offer more detail on that shortly too.

As Prime Minister, I’ll continue to act in the interests of New Zealanders, and as I’ve said, fuel security is mission-critical. Next to that is ensuring that we support New Zealanders with the increased cost of fuel, within the bounds of what our country can afford. Any spending decisions we make now will have longer-term impacts on our economy and Kiwis well understand that we cannot repeat the COVID mistakes, where excessive spending drove inflation to 32-year highs and debt tripled to $180 billion, causing huge pain and suffering to so many folk. Our test for any spending is that it is timely, that it is temporary and that it is targeted, and it’s economically responsible. We know that this conflict will likely push up inflation and slow growth, so we cannot afford to do anything that will make it even worse.

I know that it’s tough for Kiwis who are feeling the pressure of rising fuel costs. Certainly, our announcement of $50 per week boost for 143,000 households of lower/middle income working families meets that test of timeliness, targetedness and temporary. I know that will be welcome for those who are receiving it from next week onwards. For superannuitants, students, and beneficiaries, they will also be welcoming a boost in the financial support that they receive from the Government starting on April 1 this week.

I’ll now pass on to Nicola for some other updates, and then on to Shane for some remarks on securing alternative supply.

Thanks, Prime Minister. Five quick updates from me. First, as the Prime Minister has said, you’ll have seen the latest fuel stock update showing petrol and diesel stocks up and a slight dip in jet fuel stocks. These remain within normal ranges, with petrol and diesel stocks having increased since the last update as more ships have arrived and unloaded in New Zealand ports, and additional ships left their port of origin for New Zealand. Fuel importers continue to report no material issues with incoming shipments.

However, these changes in fuel stocks, together with policy developments in Australia, triggers assessment criteria in the fuel response plan I shared with you on Friday, and so we have given formal consideration to whether an assessment is required. Officials have advised me that none of these changes present a material challenge to fuel supply and therefore they have not recommended a formal assessment meeting under the national fuel plan, and I can confirm that no such assessment meeting will be taking place at this time.

Second, on the issue of regional fuel distribution, which the Prime Minister spoke to, as he said, we’ve been advised that some wholesale and rural customers have been uplifting more fuel than usual, which has contributed to localised stock imbalances and distribution bottlenecks. In response, some importers have tightened their distribution approach, moving customers from monthly to weekly allocation settings to try and distribute fuel more evenly across their networks. This is not an issue of insufficient fuel being in the country, but of greater demand.

Our officials have been working closely with importers and distributors on this issue, conscious of the concern it has caused in some communities. In response, one operator has advised officials that it will be making two changes to its operations: it will be increasing the amount of fuel it allocates weekly to the affected regions by 10 percent, and it will be providing better information to customers on truck stop outages and alternative fuel supply locations. We will continue to monitor these regional distribution issues closely, and I note that any significant disruption to regional distribution would be a trigger for an assessment of a change in response phase under the national fuel plan.

Third, an update on engagement with the national fuel plan. Businesses have been invited to provide feedback on how they think fuel should be prioritised if New Zealand had to move to phase three of the fuel plan. As of today, I can confirm that almost 500 businesses have fed back on that process so far. I thank them for their contributions. Others have that opportunity in coming days, and feedback provided will form part of our next update of the fuel plan. A reminder: those wishing to give feedback can e-mail prioritybands@mbie.govt.nz.

Fourth, to the issue of securing future fuel supply, which the Prime Minister spoke to. As we said on Friday, avoiding the sort of prioritisation measures contemplated under phase 3 and 4 of the national fuel plan remains a key goal for the Government. We acknowledge that those sort of measures would seriously damage New Zealand’s economic output over and above the negative effects already being caused by rising fuel prices, and while fuel importers do continue to indicate confidence in their future orders, and while they are already exploring alternatives to Asia as a source of fuel supply, we believe that some residual risk remains. So today, Cabinet agreed to explore additional options to guard against the risk of disrupted fuel supply, and to secure additional fuel security over and above existing minimum supply obligations.

The Government is now actively seeking proposals for New Zealand refined fuel imports on arrangements that would support additional purchase of stocks through to June. The proposals would involve the Government working with industry partners to deliver additional fuel from offshore to manage the risk of a shortage of supply, an insurance policy, if you will. The Government has already been approached by some parties with unsolicited proposals to increase supply, and we are now urgently progressing commercial assessment of those proposals.

This includes one specific proposal to swap the tickets or put options that we currently hold as part of our International Energy Agency obligations. The swap would see those crude oil and other stocks converted into usable fuel stock suitable to New Zealand’s needs, potentially stored offshore. Facilitating this and other proposals could include support for shipping costs, storage arrangements, underwrites, or risk-sharing arrangements. Our preference is for financial arrangements that share the risk with the market. As Minister of Finance I already have legal powers to provide indemnities and guarantees, although in exercising this power I need to consider whether their use is necessary in the public interest.

We will remain very careful to manage the potential fiscal risks and costs associated with these approaches. Our goal is only to provide support where the risk is too high for private suppliers to source fuel on commercial terms without Government support. We remain committed to enforcing fuel companies’ minimum stockholding obligations. If we were to secure additional fuel, we would also need to store it, as I said, either offshore or here. Minister Jones will therefore shortly bring a proposal to Ministers to consider an option from Channel Infrastructure to allow for additional diesel storage at Marsden Point.

Finally, I’d like to note that tomorrow super annuitants, working families, students and beneficiaries start to receive additional support from the Government. A host of support payments are being increased at the time and have been detailed in Government communications.

We remain acutely conscious that the conflict in the Middle East is causing pain for Kiwis at the pump and is leading to increased costs for businesses, goods and services across our economy. We have been upfront in acknowledging that the fallout from the conflict in the Middle

East is likely to drive New Zealand’s inflation rate higher and our growth rate lower than previously forecast. We also know that responding with large, untargeted Government spending programmes could make things worse for Kiwis by adding even more pressure to inflation and debt. We are making careful choices in order to protect New Zealand’s economic future. Over to you, Shane.

Obviously the fuel import companies, we are taking them at their word. I want to remind everyone that we have a just-in-time model and this model depends on the quality of their information and the robustness of how they are securing medium-to-long-term supplies. We are also about to receive recommendations from the officials in terms of upgrading, and working with Channel, the storage capacity of some of their tanks. That is only subject to the recommendations from the officials and the funding will be derived from the RIF fund.

Secondly, we do have virtual fuel, as Nicola has said, in the form of the tickets, but this all takes time. As I may have said to you, 45 days on a good day is how long it takes to get fuel from America, and if we do not act now, as reflected by the PM and Nicola, we could find that we’re in a mad, frenzied rush in the event that there is a gross shortage of feedstock into the refineries that our importers rely upon. That’s Mobil, BP and obviously Z. So, yes, we are investing, subject to suitable recommendations to Nicola and I. This is quite different than what Labour had promised to do. Labour, you may recall, had said that they had 70 million litres ready to go. They were proposing to spend the money that we depended upon to buy the tickets to give us the 50 days of options in the International Energy Agency. Number two: there was never a proposal that was capable of moving forward to my colleagues in Cabinet. But within a remarkably short period of time, probably before the end of May, we will have funded and stood up additional storage.

It will be complicated to convert our 40 days, 960 million litres into fuel, and some might say, are we not interfering with the market? Well, folks, the market’s been completely molested by a war in the Middle East, so we don’t see these proactive steps that we’re taking as representing a threat to the market at all. Rather, it’s building a sovereign buffer for Kiwis and the various businesses.

We’ve been fortunate in that we’ve had a number of contacts throughout Asia and we’ve been able to engage with them over the last two or three weeks. But I have to say, when the options do come for Kiwis to grab fuel, either with the Government working with the fuel companies, these options disappear in 72 hours, such is the level of desperation in other countries in that part of the world. So I’m very happy that the mandate has been given for us to act with alacrity within the fiscal statutory parameters and to bring options back to the PM and the full Cabinet. Thank you very much.

Well, thank you, Nicola. Thank you, Shane. Let’s take questions on fuel and we can move to other issues of the day at the end.

We’ve talked before about a shift in tone and that ramped up a bit, I think it was the week before last.

The 19th, yeah.

Here we are in a situation where we’ve had a fuel update today and things on paper look really good. There’s more, rather than less.

Correct.

Yet it feels like there’s a tone shift yet again here with the three of you in terms of how prepared we need to be and what’s coming down the line, so I’m just trying to marry those two things.

Yeah, you’re right to identify the tone shift. What we’re talking about today has even been more assertive. You know, we have gone to work from day one on this, putting the ministerial oversight group together. We’ve been engaging with industry from day one. We got ourselves organised, I think, earlier than many other countries around the world. We’ve got ourselves to a place with a national fuel plan, which actually, in the case that we run out of supply, how we’ll work our way through that process, which we foreshadowed to you on Friday, and we’ll continue to thicken that up and deepen that up.

But today what we’ve also decided is, look, you know, we have our fuel importers having very good visibility over their future orders, you’ve seen a step up in our stock cover, which is a good thing—but we also want “and, and, and”. We want maximum flexibility, we want maximum optionality, and should this situation deteriorate in two months’ time, we want to put ourselves in that place right here, right now, and say we’ve done everything we possibly can.

And so what we’re doing here is, one, making sure that we can source any alternative sources of supply that are incremental to what the fuel importers already have on their orders. Secondly, it’s about saying we are rather fortunate and in some ways different from other countries because we hold fuel tickets for fuel types that we don’t use here in New Zealand and they are in demand in other parts of the world, and that is what we are looking to trade for fuel that we would want, in our case, diesel, petrol, jet, obviously. And then linked to that is if we pull this off, we want to be able to access more storage, which is the conversation that Shane just went through.

So you’re right, but what you’re seeing is a team that’s very, very focused. We are very focused. We have three meetings a day. We have endless conversations about this each and every day. We’re very, very embedded with the industry and we need to continue to be so as we work our way through these phases. So, yes.

Given all of that then, should the public feel comforted when they see fuel updates like we’ve seen today, where it appears that things are looking good? Because only a few hours later, we’re hearing that actually we should be prepared for much worse and that work is going on—

They can be really reassured. So, first and foremost, I want everybody reassured. We are doing what we said we would do, which is to secure fuel supply. We have ample stocks on hand. We are meeting our minimum stockholding obligations. We have seen no signs yet from our oil importers that actually there are any challenges or issues with that. That’s great, and we could sit there and rest on our laurels and say that’s fantastic, but I want us to be on a much more aggressive, assertive position, which is actually thinking ahead. That’s the reason why we got on early with the national fuel plan response in the four phases. I think we’re one of the first countries to start to really put definition to that, and we did that last week, as you know.

And then the next bit, that we’ve talked about over the weekend and through the end of last week and into today in Cabinet, was that I would sooner be in a place where we are on the front foot, securing supplies much sooner than we think we may even need them, creating an abundance—I’d sooner have the embarrassment of an abundance of fuel than I would be undersorted. I’ve been through fuel crises before in my former life and I can tell you, it ain’t pleasant trying to run an airline with 30 percent of the fuel you need for several months, you know. And so it’s really important we get our head, in a mindset sense, into where this thing could go ultimately.

And, you know, let’s be clear: you’re going to have to—even if we get a quality ceasefire agreement tomorrow, miraculously, if we all wake up and that’s happening, and let’s be clear, that’s probably not going to be the reality—you’re going to have to crank up the production. You’ve got a bunch of oil sitting in storage today that’s got to get into ships. The new production’s got to get into storage, it’s got to get into ships, it’s got to work its way through the Hormuz Strait and get to our refineries, then get through the refineries and come down to us. And so while our oil companies and importers are reassuring us that they’ve seen no risk to their future orders, and as you can see that with our daily reporting, we are just wanting to make sure that we’ve got a frame in place should it happen with how we might go about prioritising stocks of fuel.

But then the other piece is let’s make sure we die trying, doing everything we can to secure additional fuel as well. And so it’s an “and, and, and”, and it just gives us optionality and flexibility for further down the road if and when we should need it, if we need it.

On the potential underwriting of commercial stock, would that be predicated on fuel pricing being priced where it is now or even higher, and could the New Zealand Government lose money if fuel prices fell—

Well, that’s the point that Nicola talked to in her remarks, which is making sure that we are doing this with great commercial sensitivity and appropriateness, so we’re not going to be on the hook for an open-ended contract that actually ends up costing us a huge amount of money. We think there’s a moment in time and now’s a good time for us to be hitting it quite hard, but of course anything we do has to make commercial sense and the reality is, while we may have—you know, we could have up to, you know, five to 10 unsolicited bids come to us pretty quickly, the reality is we’ll do it on good commercial sense and we’ll do it with good economic rationality. And that’s the key thing that Nicola will want to be reassured about, and Shane and myself.

Shane Jones, the potential new diesel storage by Channel. How much extra storage are we looking at there, potentially?

Well, they’ve got two options and I want both of them stood up, but we probably are going to have to address some of the regulatory barriers.

Yeah.

Without us perhaps realising how difficult this has got, I’m told by the CEO of Taranaki it could take him, for example, a year to offer a tank. And once we’ve teased through the final amount of money and the final volume, then we’ll make a decision, but I have to stress, it probably will require some regulatory relief given the accretion of unnecessary regs to turn this around.

And, Luke, what I’d—

Regulatory or legislative or?

No, they’re regulatory.

And, Luke what I’d say is again you’ve got a Government, as you’ve seen with RMA and fast track, that actually is very comfortable moving at pace and we will move the regulatory settings if we have to, you know, in order to make something happen.

And how much extra? There must be a range of options depending on how quick you get those regulations moving. How much extra, how many days’ more worth of diesel will be able to be stored?

It’s two tanks.

Remember, we’re talking about 12 million litres, and we want at least six or seven days but that’s going to depend on how quickly Channel can identify through its tanks which ones we can stand up by the end of May. We’re talking diesel. We chew through 12 million litres of diesel.

A day.

And although the PM has identified diesel as the source of the major problem, obviously we’re not blind to the other fuel types. But we’re very driven by the fact that we’ve got complaints coming from the forestry sector that they’re slowing down, with farmers doing the haka that they can’t develop and create the necessary export output. So that’s why I’m focused on the diesel. Kānoa and MBIE are bringing back a proposal. The moment it passes muster we will announce it, the final storage and the financial amount.

In terms of the tickets, would we be looking to call in all 40 days’ worth at once, and would they be of a specific fuel type? So are we particularly looking for diesel?

So at the moment we hold tickets to different types of crude oil, as well as some refined products. We have assessed those and very few of them are actually suitable for use in New Zealand, so the unsolicited proposal that we’ve had is from a commercial entity that has basically said, “Let’s do a swap. We’ll exchange you what you’ve got an option on, in exchange for a particular volume of refined fuel that could be used in New Zealand.” And so what we are now doing is assessing that proposal to see that it’s commercially a good deal for the New Zealand taxpayer and also providing the opportunity that if there are others who wish to submit a proposal of that sort, that they can. So it’s essentially taking something that’s a concept on paper and turning it into real diesel and petrol for New Zealand tanks.

Does the shared risk with the Government give you more of an option to regulate where the fuel goes and control where supply is heading, some of that distribution stuff?

Well, potentially it could.

Just a question for the Minister of Finance. What has your latest Treasury briefing said about the peak of inflation? Is it still sitting at 3.7 percent? A lot of banks don’t agree.

Look, Treasury, like just about every economist in the world right now, caveats every piece of advice they give me by saying it depends how long this conflict lasts, it depends how long it takes after this conflict ends for the Strait of Hormuz to properly reopen, it depends whether other supply chains are disrupted and for how long. So I just want to emphasise that their advice is caveated. But in their latest scenarios, in which they take into account a longer conflict with deeper disruption to supply chains, they have inflation peaking higher than I’d previously presented to you. But they are continuing to refine their scenarios and their planning, noting that final forecasts will need to be presented at the Budget. I also note that the Reserve Bank will shortly present their own forecasts, and that, I think, will be the first point at which the New Zealand media can assess independent forecasting of inflation.

What is that new number that you’ve got from—

They have given me a range of numbers and I’m not going to share them because they haven’t landed on a final scenario, nor even a central scenario, because what they’ve said to me is, “Look, this has to be caveated, there’s so much changing.” But what they’ve fully acknowledged to me, Jenna, and what I can be open with you about, is that they think inflation will go much higher this year and it will stay out of our target band.

OK, hang on, guys. Wait, wait, wait. We’re going to go Tom, and then Benedict, and then Jamie.

Minister Willis, can you provide more detail as to why officials didn’t believe that there was a formal assessment that was needed to be required for going to phase two, when both Australia’s changes meet the significant policy changes and also the jet fuel stock is down by three days, per your own two points in the plan?

Yeah, you’re correct. Officials have provided me formal advice because they agree with you that two triggers have been—have had changes. So the first is on the fuel stock levels, where you did see jet fuel reduce by three days, and the second, that there has been the policy change in Australia. So then what they have done is they’ve advised me on that, and their advice—assessing all of those changes together, including information that we have against the other criteria—is that there is no material development in the risk to fuel supply.

So if they saw that that three-day reduction was combined with other factors that made them think there was now a material worsening on our supply situation, or if they thought that the policy development in Australia meant that there had been a material worsening in supply, then they would have recommended that we hold an assessment meeting. But their analysis is that there is not—they consider that neither of those factors have been triggered in such a way that it requires an urgent meeting at this time. I’ve agreed with them and we’re not scheduling a meeting. But the reason we’ve made those assessment criteria transparent is so that people can see when they are being brought into issue, and we will continue to provide a transparent assessment of whether we think they are material developments.

A move from phase 1 to phase 2 would occur if we believed that there had been material changes that threatened fuel supply more than is currently the case.

Can you shed some light on what’s been going on with the hoarding?

We’re just acknowledging anecdotal evidence that we’ve seen, you know, some hoarding take place by some people. I would argue to you that New Zealanders have been very good. I mean, they have been reassured that we’ve got stock, we’ve got inventory. It’s happened in a few localised places and—

Whereabouts?

In different places across New Zealand and more in some rural communities. But essentially, what we’re doing is—part of that driven by a little bit of increased hoarding but also there has been a change in allocation policies between the fuel importers and the fuel distributors. Nicola, do you have anything else you want to add to that?

Look, New Zealanders will have seen this across a range of communities. Certainly we’ve heard reports out of Ōpōtiki—

South Canterbury.

—Southland, Nelson, where at various times there have been what’s sometimes referred to as a stockout, where a regional distributor of fuel, who contractors and others rely on for fuel, hasn’t had sufficient fuel on hand to restock them.

So we’ve dug into that issue to understand why that is when we know that we have sufficient fuel stock in the country, and what those fuel importers and distributors have confirmed is that that’s because in order to deal with imbalances across the country that have been occurring as people have been ordering ahead and perhaps making slightly bigger orders than usual, they have changed their systems to go from one month to one week, and of course that alters how much supply you can get at one time.

So we’ve been working with them because we don’t want to see these problems worsening and, as I say, in response, they are making some changes to their own policies. And we have again reminded them that keeping regional distribution flowing is critically important and if we do see major issues like this continuing to escalate, that would be a trigger for assessing a move in the fuel plan.

What do you say to the critics who say we should be moving up those phases faster, we should be rationing our fuel already, given things are looking, you know, pretty dangerous coming up?

I’d say we’re doing everything needed to protect our fuel security for the future, but actually there’s a limit to how much storage we have now, so stopping fuel flowing wouldn’t necessarily put us in a better position.

Firstly, back to Jenna’s question regarding inflation, why were you capable of giving us numbers a few weeks ago regarding the worst-case scenario, but now you can’t provide us any sort of numbers?

Well, I shared those numbers proactively in something that’s very unusual practice. Journalists will know that for many years, it has not been traditional for Ministers of Finance to share preliminary economic forecasts ahead of the Budget. I shared those to give a sense of what I thought was a developing picture, and I’m also transparently sharing with you that we’re now preparing a broader range of scenarios. What I don’t want to do is at this particular point in time, ahead of finalising Budget forecasts, point to a set of figures that could be quickly outdated in the coming days, given how fast developments are occurring in the Middle East.

I am very aware that there are a range of economic forecasts out there from the commercial banks and others, pointing to exacerbated inflation and growth effects. We’re very conscious of those. Treasury are doing good work forecasting, but I think it would be unfair on my forecasting teams to pin them down to a set of forecasts which they themselves have acknowledged are caveated, fast-moving, and which they will not be finalising until they need to as part of the Budget process.

Sorry, guys, stop. Can we go to Adam? Sorry, Adam.

Just a second question, sorry. Australia’s cutting their fuel excise tax in half. What would your message be to New Zealanders who look over there and say, “Why are they doing it? Why can’t we?”

Well, I think it’s—we talked about that last week, which is, you know, for us, our advice is pretty clear: it’s poorly targeted, it actually benefits high-income households, and it actually encourages fuel use when it’s constrained.

[Inaudible]?

That’s a decision for them. I’m not going to comment on other countries’ individual policies. What I’ve got to make sure is that New Zealand’s set up in the right way, and we’ve been pretty clear about making sure that the decisions that we take, we’ll be making sure they’re very, very targeted, they are temporary, they are timely, and on the other hand, we’re doing everything we can to minimise the impacts on increasing inflation and rising debt.

Minister Willis, there will be some who will look at Cabinet considering proposals for extra fuel storage as proof of concern about the future of fuel supply and therefore a move to phase 2, so how do you balance those two?

Well, it’s proof that we’re thinking ahead, and the biggest risk that we face is actually having to move to the sorts of measures contemplated in phase 3 and 4 of the fuel plan. A world in which we are having to limit fuel supply to certain users of fuel in the New Zealand economy is a world we want to take every step possible to avoid. Now, the time to take those steps isn’t several weeks from now when a fuel supply problem could potentially emerge. The time to take action is now, so that if those fuel supply issues did emerge in future, we were already prepared. So what we’re taking is a proactive, prudent step.

I can again confirm for New Zealanders not only do we have sufficient fuel reserves now, we continue to have the assurance of fuel-importing countries that they have not experienced immediate disruption to their fuel supplies. But it wouldn’t be good enough for me and Shane and the Prime Minister to sit here and say, “Well, the fuel importers have said it’s fine, so it’s fine”. We’re taking an extra step, an insurance measure to say: well, in the eventuality that one of those fuel importers did have disrupted supply, how would we ensure that we had a sufficient fallback position? And that’s why you’re seeing us progress additional measures. This is prudent, responsible Government.

Yeah. And I think, Adam, that’s what we talked about. I mean, like, you know, as a good Government, we’ve got to get our—and Jo touched on it before. You know, we shifted very clearly on the 19th of March to say we’re thinking about eight to 12 weeks out from where we were at that point in time. We wanted the system and the Government and all the agencies to move to that sort of thinking. We’ve done that. And again, we’re going again now to say, look, there’s an opportunity for us to secure excess supply above and beyond our minimum stock holdings, because that may be valuable to us down the road.

Minister Jones, if we exhaust our tickets with the IEA, what happens if the war and the strait is still blocked in, say, August or September? Where do we get extra fuel from then?

Yes, so we are entitled—OK, the conversion of the virtual fuel into physical, genuine material is one option. We are entitled to do that through the rules and regulations of the International Agency. When Nicola talked about additional unsolicited offers, don’t underestimate the number of people—and, as I understand, the PM has been in regular contact with the Singaporeans—who want to ensure that we are in a fit state because a number of them are going to rely on us. For example, the gross shortage of fertiliser and whatnot in South-east Asia is now—it has the capacity, Richard, to compromise their food growing, and you’d know as well as I do the Singaporeans have an expectation of us providing them with food because they had that problem in COVID.

But just one thing I’d say, for those of you who are worried whether or not we—Nicola and I— are moving too early, let me contrast it during COVID. There was a situation where the last Government did not move to secure vaccines. We are not going to repeat that perfidy. Yes, there are risks. Yes, it does represent a fiscal burden. But you’ll be the first people complaining in the event that an unexpected, sour range of events take place and we hadn’t been proactive. So that’s the decision that we’ve made today in Cabinet, and I look forward to actioning it.

Mate, it’s so much fun doing press conferences with you.

We’re putting ourselves at the front of the queue.

Hang on, guys, just to make it all work, can we go to Thomas?

Minister Willis, in terms of those inflation numbers that you’ve received, I understand that you can’t give us the numbers but is the peak lower than the peak that happened under the previous Government?

Yeah, look, so to clarify, Treasury have simply come to me and said, “Look, we now think that the range of scenarios we need to consider is much broader, and there are a range of different factors which could influence the inflation and GDP picture going forward, and we feel that we will need to include a range of scenarios in our forecasts for Budget,” and they’re not prepared to finalise with me what those forecasts are now. So instead, what they’ve said is there’s a range of different things we need to be considering here and that need to be input into our models.

But what they are saying very clearly, as you’d expect, is that with fuel prices being heightened for, potentially for some time under some scenarios, they are therefore forecasting that will have secondary effects. New Zealanders are already seeing that with prices, surcharges and other things going up. But of course there are then also questions about how monetary policy responds, and so therefore there are a number of issues that they need to address in order to give a generalised view of inflation.

Do any of those scenarios that you’re getting foresee inflation peaking above the, I think, 7.2 or 7.3 percent that it peaked at under the last wave of—

Look, I’ve seen a range of scenarios, Thomas, and as I say, it is all very heavily caveated and the next formal update that New Zealanders will have on the central forecast for inflation will be when the Reserve Bank publish their monetary policy statement very shortly.

That sounds like [Inaudible].

No, but Thomas—

No, it’s not. It’s me saying that I don’t think it’s fair to expect Treasury to have come up with a number at this point, given they have explicitly said to me there are multiple criteria they are working to assess in real time, with developments on a daily and weekly basis affecting their assessment. So I’m not going to have them held to a number that they haven’t put in their budget forecasts for me yet.

And Thomas, can I just say, look, you know, what we’re focused on is: in the real world, what are we doing to secure fuel supply for New Zealanders? Are we managing it in a way that’s thinking ahead and are we doing all those right things? We also are coming through the frame very, very strongly, making sure any decisions we make are going to minimise impacts on inflation and obviously debt. That’s the big learning out of COVID. We’re not repeating those mistakes again. As I’ve been saying to people, it’s not COVID 2.0, we are not doing that again, but we are just working our way through in a calm, measured way to make sure that we are practically managing the real world of fuel supply for New Zealanders, but also keeping an eye on the financial fiscals that are going to be needed. But, you know, if—it is not helpful for us, frankly, sitting where we’re sitting each and every day, trying to think about the modelling that’s associated with inflation, and as a result what we’re doing is making sure any decision we make has lower impact on that.

Who are the parties that have brought all the unsolicited bids around fuel supply? Can you name some of them?

We can’t. It’s commercially sensitive.

Are they international corporates, domestic corporates, individuals with bright ideas?

Shane, do you want to talk to that?

Sorry, I didn’t hear that.

Look, it’s commercially sensitive. There’s a range of proposals. Were any deals to be entered into, we’d be transparent.

OK, we’re going to take three more questions, team. Sorry, what—

Henry.

Henry.

Minister Willis, there’s some who argue that outside of those band A services—so like ambulances, doctors—outside of those services, you should just let price do the work, that actually the Government doesn’t have a role there. You’re never going to understand quite what an individual farmer or individual industrial user prices the next litre of diesel at as well as they will. They might let one stock rot, one crop rot because it’s less important than another crop, if you let prices do their job. What would you say to those people? Is that an argument you can have sympathy with?

Well, look, I’d say I agree. The idea of communism in which the Government divides up the goods isn’t something that appeals to me, which is why I’m pretty determined to avoid us getting to phases three and four.

Market failure.

But look, officials in their initial advice—and this is why we’re undertaking consultation—have indicated that you would still be allocating fuel to all users, you just would have prioritisation for those top bands where keeping life-protective and essential services running would mean that you wouldn’t want to have any caps on supply, but that you would have to have a gradated approach through the priority bands. That’s exactly why we’re consulting, Henry, because we recognise there will be a range of views on what should be prioritised and how, and we think that price will still be an important part of the mechanism.

OK, can we go over beside the pillar here?

[Inaudible] do we have that those unsolicited proposals will be treated fairly, that you’ll be trying to get the best price and that, you know, those relationships are being managed [Inaudible]?

[Inaudible].

Yeah, well, absolutely. That’s why we’re being upfront that we have received these proposals, that we’re now officially calling for proposals so that any proposals can be tested against the same fair set of criteria according to the goals that we’ve set out, which is securing fuel supply above and beyond that which would otherwise occur through commercial arrangements in a way that minimises risk to the Crown.

OK, guys, we’ve got to go. Last question.

You’ve presented a need for more energy security through this LNG terminal, so if it does fall through, what’s the backup plan?

Sorry, the LNG import facility?

Yes, yes.

Yeah, look, I’ve just been very clear we’re in the middle of a procurement process. Obviously, we’ve got to get a commercial business case that stacks up. If it doesn’t stack up, we won’t be doing it. That’s all that I’ve been communicating.

Is there a backup plan if it doesn’t stack up?

Well, again, our whole energy strategy is about an “and, and, and”. You know, we’re going through a massive renewables boom in this country. There’s a lot more going on, I think, in the last two years than there has in the previous 10 years.

Geothermal.

We’ve got a massive investment going down in geothermal. Think about the investment that Contact’s made in particular, and others. So we—it’s a—you know, we have to do everything we can to avoid $800 megawatt per hour power charges that we saw in 2024, which put people—you know, lose their jobs in and low and middle-income working New Zealand in mills across this country. Utterly unacceptable.

Would you look to increase investment into geothermal, in the absence—

Well, we are.

OK.

We are. We’re increasing investment in geothermal, we’re increasing investment in solar and wind, we’ve also put in place a strategic coal reserve in the back at Huntly that would get us through a lot of a dry year, and it’s an “and, and, and”. OK. Thanks, team. Sorry, guys, we’ve got to go. Thank you so much.