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Does the recommendation in the February 2026 Gateway review of the Waitematā Harbour Connections Project regarding contingency beyond conventional P50/P95 analysis indicate that the review team considered the project's cost estimates understated the risk of cost escalation; if not, what did it indicate?

Answered Question 38045 (2026)
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Asked by

Tangi Utikere

Member for Palmerston North · Labour Party

Question

  • Does the recommendation in the February 2026 Gateway review of the Waitematā Harbour Connections Project regarding contingency beyond conventional P50/P95 analysis indicate that the review team considered the project's cost estimates understated the risk of cost escalation; if not, what did it indicate?

Answered by

Hon Chris Bishop

Member for Hutt South · National Party · Minister of Transport

Answer

No. The review recognised that for a project of this scale and duration, contingency above a conventional P50/P95 analysis is required to manage effective management at a strategic and tactical level.