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Does the Minister agree with the approach to climate impact modelling used in the United Kingdom, where "the climate change allowances that underpin both the National Flood Risk Assessment 2 (NaFRA2, December 2024) and the Flood Map for Planning in England are based exclusively on a high-emissions pathway (RCP8.5)", as noted by the Ministry for the Environment in the briefing dated 19/05/2026 and titled 26-BRF-00956 'The use of climate projections in the first generation of the New Zealand Flood Map'?

Answered Question 37178 (2026)
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Asked by

Lan Pham

List MP · Green Party

Question

  • Does the Minister agree with the approach to climate impact modelling used in the United Kingdom, where "the climate change allowances that underpin both the National Flood Risk Assessment 2 (NaFRA2, December 2024) and the Flood Map for Planning in England are based exclusively on a high-emissions pathway (RCP8.5)", as noted by the Ministry for the Environment in the briefing dated 19/05/2026 and titled 26-BRF-00956 'The use of climate projections in the first generation of the New Zealand Flood Map'?

Answered by

Hon Simon Watts

Member for North Shore · National Party · Minister of Climate Change

Answer

New Zealand’s approach to climate projections prioritises the use of multiple scenarios. This is consistent with the suite of Shared Socioeconomic Pathways available in the national climate projections including lower, intermediate, high and very high pathways.