Why does he characterise the scenarios used by Concept Consulting in the modelling on the LNG facility as making assumptions not supported by MBIE's own modelling, when MBIE officials worked closely with Concept Consulting to develop the scenarios used?

Answer

Concept Consulting has produced a report Outlook for the New Zealand gas market. The report was produced as a commercial product available for purchase, rather than being commissioned by MBIE. As such MBIE did not work closely with Concept Consulting to develop the scenarios used as stated in the question. MBIE has previously worked with Concept Consulting on LNG as an insurance product for New Zealand. That work entailed a set of stressed electricity system scenarios, which showed LNG reduced the sport price for electricity. These findings are set out in Annex Two of https://www.mbie.govt.nz/dmsdocument/31754-government-investment-in-dry-year-risk-cover-consideration-of-an-lng-import-facility, and the underlying modelling has been published https://www.mbie.govt.nz/dmsdocument/31770-concept-consulting-modelling-results-for-lng-analysis