What modelling, if any, has been done on a worst-case fuel supply disruption scenario?

Answer

The government undertakes scenario planning as part of its security and emergency preparedness work. The 2025 Fuel Security Study modelled a severe disruption where the supply of fuel to New Zealand is completely unavailable for an extended period. It modelled a 90-day loss of fuel supply into the country and estimated that in-country inventories would need to sustain the country over that period and could be reduced to very low levels while only critical users are supplied. Given the strategic importance of diesel, the Government has taken steps to increase diesel storage capacity to further strengthen resilience and ensure essential and critical uses can be supported if global supply conditions deteriorate.