What specific scenarios, if any, involving closure or disruption of the Strait of Hormuz were modelled in the Fuel Security Study (February 2025) or the Fuel Security Plan (November 2025)?

Answer

The Fuel Security Study (February 2025) modelled a major international supply disruption scenario to crude or fuel markets requiring supply chains to be rearraged. As part of that scenario, the Study considered a wider range of possible causes, such as the closure of the Strait of Hormuz which would impact 20 percent of the global fuel supply chain. The Fuel Security Plan (November 2025) did not include modelling of specific disruption scenarios, including closure of the Strait of Hormuz. The Plan builds on the findings of the Fuel Security Study and a broader assessment of fuel system vulnerabilities - and sets out a medium to long term strategic vision to improve New Zealand's fuel resilience.